The media by and large made Saturday's arrest of the world's most-wanted drug lord sound like good news. His capture "signals progress" and "shows Mexico is making headway," reported Bloomberg Businessweek in the title and opening paragraph of its report. Sure, at least 92,000 people have been murdered or disappeared in Mexico since 2006 thanks to the drug war, but putting this guy behind bars "marks a victory" for Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.
The truth, however, is that in all likelihood it will have zero effect in the long term, and an overwhelmingly negative effect in the short term. This is because, as the abovementioned article finally acknowledges in paragraphs 24 and 25, "Guzman's arrest may trigger more violence in Mexico." According to Ioan Grillo, author of El Narco: Inside Mexico's Criminal Insurgency, "In recent years in Mexico, when major drug capos have been taken down, we've seen a clear pattern in short- and medium-term explosions of violence where their underlings are fighting for positions."
So, increased violence until someone else seizes control and violence returns to its normal (i.e., high) level. And all for nothing. Drugs will remain as easy to obtain as they have ever been. As former Mexican President Vicente Fox wrote in The Globe and Mail just last week, prohibition simply does not work.
It is also a gross injustice to tell people what they can and cannot put inside their own bodies and then throw them in jail if they disobey. "Legalization of not just marijuana, but all drugs, is the right thing to do," argues Fox. "Each person should be free to decide what's best for himself or herself." The world will be a better place when politicians on both sides of the Rio Grande at last come to accept what this former politician has realized.
So, increased violence until someone else seizes control and violence returns to its normal (i.e., high) level. And all for nothing. Drugs will remain as easy to obtain as they have ever been. As former Mexican President Vicente Fox wrote in The Globe and Mail just last week, prohibition simply does not work.
It is also a gross injustice to tell people what they can and cannot put inside their own bodies and then throw them in jail if they disobey. "Legalization of not just marijuana, but all drugs, is the right thing to do," argues Fox. "Each person should be free to decide what's best for himself or herself." The world will be a better place when politicians on both sides of the Rio Grande at last come to accept what this former politician has realized.